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本文摘要:Will robots take over the workforce? And if--or when--they do, what jobs will be left for us humans?机器人否不会沦为主要劳动力?


Will robots take over the workforce? And if--or when--they do, what jobs will be left for us humans?机器人否不会沦为主要劳动力?如果不会的话,那么等到那一天,人类还剩下什么工作可做到呢?These were among the biggest workplace and management questions at South by Southwest Interactive in Austin over the weekend. Several of the panels at the sprawling tech conference focused on our future robot overlords, with many of the discussions taking a rosy view that the workforce will indeed be dominated by robots in the not-too-far future--and why that is a good thing.上周末在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀(Austin)举办的西南偏南(South by Southwest Interactive)大会上,上述问题出了工作场所和管理方面辩论最冷淡的话题。此次大会的几个座谈小组重点辩论未来机器人称霸劳动力市场的情况,很多参予辩论的人都悲观地指出,在不过于很远的未来,机器人显然不会在工作场所占有主导地位,并且辩论了为何说道这是件好事。Carl Bass, the chief executive of Autodesk, acknowledged that workplace automation has eliminated or reduced many manufacturing jobs, and will continue to do so in the future, leading to major shifts in the labor market. Entire industries, such as trucking, will eventually be disrupted by robotic advances like self-driving cars, he said. (Bass cited the book, The Second Machine Age, by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee as a source for this robot-heavy scenario.)欧特克公司(Autodesk Inc.)的首席执行长巴斯(Carl Bass)否认,工厂自动化已查禁或增加了许多制造业岗位,而且未来这一情况将不会继续下去,这将造成劳动力市场再次发生极大改变。

他说道,像货车运输这样的整个行业最后将被无人驾驶汽车等机器人技术变革所政治宣传。(巴斯援引布林约尔松(Erik Brynjolfsson)和麦卡菲(Andrew McAfee)联合编写的《第二个机器时代》(The Second Machine Age)来论证他的这一设想。

)But, Bass asked: Are the jobs lost to automation ones that you would want for your children? Few parents, he said, dreamed their kids would someday become fuel pumpers or elevator operators, jobs already replaced by automation. In the next 30 years, Bass added, smart machines and robots will outnumber humans on the planet.但巴斯也问道,那些被自动化代替的工作是你想要让孩子以后专门从事的职业吗?他说道,完全没家长会期望自己的孩子有朝一日沦为加油站的打气员或电梯操作员,这种工作已构建自动化。巴斯补足说道,未来30年,全球智能机器和机器人的总量将多达全球人口总量。Bass presented some outlandish ideas to help societies deal with the structural changes generated by a robot-heavy workforce, including taxing economic output rather than income, or implementing a negative income tax, in which governments pay citizens a stipend in order to guarantee a level of income.为了协助社会应付机器人主导劳动力市场所引起的结构性变化,巴斯明确提出了一些奇特的点子,例如对经济生产量而非收益征收,或实行“胜所得税”――即政府向公民缴纳津贴以保证某一收入水平。


With our creativity and imagination, we will find harmony with the robots, Bass said.巴斯说道,凭借我们的创造力和想象力,我们应当能与机器人人与自然共处。Meanwhile, other discussions focused on identifying jobs were likely to remain safe from robots. Heather Knight, a Carnegie Mellon roboticist who studies social interactions between humans and robots, suggested that hairdressers might be safe. But not because robots cant cut hair--she said the relationship between hairdressers and their clients simply cant be automated. (And, she added, some people might be wary of a robot holding a sharp blade so close to their necks, although plenty of robots already perform delicate surgery.)与此同时,其他辩论的焦点是证实哪些工作有可能会被机器人所代替。卡内基梅隆大学(Carnegie Mellon)研究人类和机器人之间社会对话的机器人专家奈特(Heather Knight)似乎,美发师这一职业也许会受到机器人的影响。


她说道,这并不是因为机器人无法剪头发,而是因为美发师和客户之间的关系无法构建自动化。她还说道,虽然有很多机器人早已在为人类展开笔法的外科手术,但对于机器人拿着锐利的刀片如此相似他们的脖子,一些人可能会心存戒备。Another job deemed safe? Roboticist.另一个会不受机器人影响的工作是什么?是机器人专家。



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